The phrase “once in a lifetime” referring to COVID is constantly being echoed by journalists. Just because the last pandemic took place 100 years ago doesn’t mean the next one will arrive on that schedule.
It could happen again in 200 years, or in 2 years. (Isn’t this what variants are?)
People need to focus on the bodies natural tools to combat disease instead of relying on jabs.
Another excellent article. Thank you for having the courage to wade into tough issues with honest, factual, intellectual debate. We need more of this type of thinking and discussion across all aspects of society and many difficult topics. In short... you got it right.
Thank you for your thoughtful evaluation of a sticky subject.
I’m will be in the non-vaccine group. I’m 76, diabetic and am willing to take the risk as we have all done for decades. My confidence in the federal agencies we historically trusted has been shaken by the myriad of data collecting errors, attribution to COVID falsely, rule changes, false reporting (NY), along with the inaccuracy of the testing (30% error rate) along with the absence of a cohesive plan to allow people to resume lives has been almost laughable if it weren’t so serious. CDC decisions (just today allowing the teachers unions to influence their recommendations about schools reopening) makes me very leery.
I’m also very concerned by the stranglehold pharmaceutical companies have over State Boards of Pharmacy and Physicians governing boards. Only 5% of physicians belong to the AMA? That is not saying ‘confidence!’
We have refined many treatment methodologies and it is no longer the deathly threat it was when it was a new diagnosis. I try to keep my immune system healthy. And I sensibly refrain from large crowds as do my core group of friendships.
There is risk in all medical decisions. I take Lipitor for elevated lipids and CAD. It elevated my glucose to a diabetic level. Should I stop the Lipitor and risk a cardiac event. There is no perfect answer. Risk assessment is what we do.
The vaccine may be as good as they hope but there are many long term unknowns. Never has a vaccine gone public with no long term testing. I find that to be riskier than the chance of COVID. The pandemic of a generation could re-occur in 5 or 150 years! WHO KNOWS?
I’d like to be around in 15-20 years and see how all the data shakes out. It might be very different than current suppositions.
Thanks for providing a place for a different approach than the commonly accepted one.
You are aware that this info now comes with the "evidence" graph?? - I was very surprised they could post so detailed info by age etc only one week after this side effect was a big nono in UK. Then they have left ti there - I think is a gross underestimation of the risk
"Please note this article dates from 7th April 2021. New data from the MHRA and falling incidence of COVID-19 in the UK mean that these illustrations are no longer current. We are trying to source the necessary data to be able to update them"
I think you got it right, thank you for sharing Dr M!
I would just add what data we can expect to accumulate in the next say 6-9 months that will better inform our judgement on whether to vaccinate children. In addition to safety and efficacy data from trials on children, we should also get a better view of transmissibility from children to vaccinated adults, both healthy and immunocompromised. If we learn that transmission is quite rare and effects on vaccinated adults are minimal (the vaccines continue to be super effective), these are very important data points.
Of course, we will also take into account that children (different by age category) will likely be acquiring some immunity through natural infection over time (depending upon community transmission, which hopefully goes down quickly as the year progresses), which would materially blunt their ability to shed the virus.
Very tough issue, as you point out. But I'm with you, let's see what we learn in the coming months.
Society is so frighteningly politically polarized right now that as a parent with a (non medical) PhD I'm baffled and sad that many of my peers suddenly don't want me to think twice about vaccinating my kids. It's like I'm supposed to think about... anything other than that. Rely on research for... anything other than this. And certainly not tell anyone at the picnic if I have rational, research based concerns.
On that note, "stop and think" is a great title overall. I think a widespread trauma response around covid is the (understandable but hazardous) shut down of deep thinking capacity.
When it comes to making pandemic related decisions for my children, I find myself (absurdly) needing to reassure myself with mantras I would have laughed at in grad school, so obvious are they: "it's ok to think. it's ok to think again. one of the ways we protect those we love is through thinking and feeling."
Dr. John - Over past 14 months, among 2.75 MILLION under-30s in Switzerland, a total of 6 have died of covid. One out of 392,000. In Norway, only 1 out of 458,000. Anyone wanting the young to be vaxed would have to X their fingers & try to beat those odds with an avowedly experimental vaccine.
In Germany, we had 11 validated deaths among children (0-19 yrs), with 8 having pre-existing conditions. Among a total of 385.022 positives in that age group (certainly underreported). That means: Chance to survive COVID among children is 99.997% (in previously healthy kids: 99.999%. So vaccines have to be really, really safe for our young ones...
Good thoughts. This episode of This Week in Virology helped inform our decision to get our teenagers vaccinated. Kids are getting the virus at same rate as adults, but harder to detect / test. I've read your thoughts on long COVID, but still a lot of unknowns. Given safety profile of the vaccines, we felt it was safer to get them vaccinated: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-731/
I think the harm/benefit numbers you present are misleading because they take into account the current very low disease prevalence in the UK, which is the result of severe social restrictions.
All medical interventions carry risk. However for diseases with very low prevalence, such as measles, you could argue that the risk to an individual child is negligible. It is still ethical to give measles vaccines to children, though, because if everyone decides to calculate their individual risk in this way, the prevalence of measles would go up, and the vaccine would be justified again.
Anti-vaxxers are not necessarily anti-science, but they recognise that they are being sold a slightly misleading narrative about vaccines, and that there is a limited opportunity to be a free-rider off the herd immunity of others without having to take their share of the individual risk of the vaccine.
I've not seen any data to suggest that any adult would not be better off from getting the vaccine over catching Covid. Therefore I believe it is justified to recommend it to everyone.
Great point. I love it that the first comment is civil and smart!
I guess measles vaccine has a bit of a track record of safety though.
The phrase “once in a lifetime” referring to COVID is constantly being echoed by journalists. Just because the last pandemic took place 100 years ago doesn’t mean the next one will arrive on that schedule.
It could happen again in 200 years, or in 2 years. (Isn’t this what variants are?)
People need to focus on the bodies natural tools to combat disease instead of relying on jabs.
Another excellent article. Thank you for having the courage to wade into tough issues with honest, factual, intellectual debate. We need more of this type of thinking and discussion across all aspects of society and many difficult topics. In short... you got it right.
Thank you for your thoughtful evaluation of a sticky subject.
I’m will be in the non-vaccine group. I’m 76, diabetic and am willing to take the risk as we have all done for decades. My confidence in the federal agencies we historically trusted has been shaken by the myriad of data collecting errors, attribution to COVID falsely, rule changes, false reporting (NY), along with the inaccuracy of the testing (30% error rate) along with the absence of a cohesive plan to allow people to resume lives has been almost laughable if it weren’t so serious. CDC decisions (just today allowing the teachers unions to influence their recommendations about schools reopening) makes me very leery.
I’m also very concerned by the stranglehold pharmaceutical companies have over State Boards of Pharmacy and Physicians governing boards. Only 5% of physicians belong to the AMA? That is not saying ‘confidence!’
We have refined many treatment methodologies and it is no longer the deathly threat it was when it was a new diagnosis. I try to keep my immune system healthy. And I sensibly refrain from large crowds as do my core group of friendships.
There is risk in all medical decisions. I take Lipitor for elevated lipids and CAD. It elevated my glucose to a diabetic level. Should I stop the Lipitor and risk a cardiac event. There is no perfect answer. Risk assessment is what we do.
The vaccine may be as good as they hope but there are many long term unknowns. Never has a vaccine gone public with no long term testing. I find that to be riskier than the chance of COVID. The pandemic of a generation could re-occur in 5 or 150 years! WHO KNOWS?
I’d like to be around in 15-20 years and see how all the data shakes out. It might be very different than current suppositions.
Thanks for providing a place for a different approach than the commonly accepted one.
You are aware that this info now comes with the "evidence" graph?? - I was very surprised they could post so detailed info by age etc only one week after this side effect was a big nono in UK. Then they have left ti there - I think is a gross underestimation of the risk
"Please note this article dates from 7th April 2021. New data from the MHRA and falling incidence of COVID-19 in the UK mean that these illustrations are no longer current. We are trying to source the necessary data to be able to update them"
I think you got it right, thank you for sharing Dr M!
I would just add what data we can expect to accumulate in the next say 6-9 months that will better inform our judgement on whether to vaccinate children. In addition to safety and efficacy data from trials on children, we should also get a better view of transmissibility from children to vaccinated adults, both healthy and immunocompromised. If we learn that transmission is quite rare and effects on vaccinated adults are minimal (the vaccines continue to be super effective), these are very important data points.
Of course, we will also take into account that children (different by age category) will likely be acquiring some immunity through natural infection over time (depending upon community transmission, which hopefully goes down quickly as the year progresses), which would materially blunt their ability to shed the virus.
Very tough issue, as you point out. But I'm with you, let's see what we learn in the coming months.
I'm new here. Your "givens" haven't aged well, have they?
Just wanting to say thank you, as a mom.
Society is so frighteningly politically polarized right now that as a parent with a (non medical) PhD I'm baffled and sad that many of my peers suddenly don't want me to think twice about vaccinating my kids. It's like I'm supposed to think about... anything other than that. Rely on research for... anything other than this. And certainly not tell anyone at the picnic if I have rational, research based concerns.
On that note, "stop and think" is a great title overall. I think a widespread trauma response around covid is the (understandable but hazardous) shut down of deep thinking capacity.
When it comes to making pandemic related decisions for my children, I find myself (absurdly) needing to reassure myself with mantras I would have laughed at in grad school, so obvious are they: "it's ok to think. it's ok to think again. one of the ways we protect those we love is through thinking and feeling."
This is all to say, thank you.
Dr. John - Over past 14 months, among 2.75 MILLION under-30s in Switzerland, a total of 6 have died of covid. One out of 392,000. In Norway, only 1 out of 458,000. Anyone wanting the young to be vaxed would have to X their fingers & try to beat those odds with an avowedly experimental vaccine.
In Germany, we had 11 validated deaths among children (0-19 yrs), with 8 having pre-existing conditions. Among a total of 385.022 positives in that age group (certainly underreported). That means: Chance to survive COVID among children is 99.997% (in previously healthy kids: 99.999%. So vaccines have to be really, really safe for our young ones...
Good thoughts. This episode of This Week in Virology helped inform our decision to get our teenagers vaccinated. Kids are getting the virus at same rate as adults, but harder to detect / test. I've read your thoughts on long COVID, but still a lot of unknowns. Given safety profile of the vaccines, we felt it was safer to get them vaccinated: https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-731/
Thank you Dr M. It's difficult for us non-medical people to get reliable information these days.
I think the harm/benefit numbers you present are misleading because they take into account the current very low disease prevalence in the UK, which is the result of severe social restrictions.
All medical interventions carry risk. However for diseases with very low prevalence, such as measles, you could argue that the risk to an individual child is negligible. It is still ethical to give measles vaccines to children, though, because if everyone decides to calculate their individual risk in this way, the prevalence of measles would go up, and the vaccine would be justified again.
Anti-vaxxers are not necessarily anti-science, but they recognise that they are being sold a slightly misleading narrative about vaccines, and that there is a limited opportunity to be a free-rider off the herd immunity of others without having to take their share of the individual risk of the vaccine.
I've not seen any data to suggest that any adult would not be better off from getting the vaccine over catching Covid. Therefore I believe it is justified to recommend it to everyone.