Well, sure it's simple if you have many years of medical school and a deep seated expertise in the topic. For someone who does not know what a "randomized trial" is, it's a little less simple. Your post is the classic "an expert thinks things in their field are simple to understand because they're an expert not because they're actually simple" kind of comment
i use to date a bayesian. but we both had to become episcopalian to impress her mother.
ive adjusted my priors to no longer date people w mothers, & expect contentment in my relationships. so far it has been lonely: but also no relationships have failed. look, not all data is useful. nor all dating. _JC
Regarding the Vitamin D question, It seems there's actually many different questions being asked, which warrant different answers.
"Does Vitamin D 'cure' COVID?"
"Does Vitamin D help fight COVID?"
"Does Vitamin D prevent infection?"
We know there's rarely a singular cause/cure for any disease, so that decreases the chances Vitamin D is one. But otherwise, it *could* help prevent severe disease, in that my priors hold that being nutritionally deficient likely makes you weaker at fighting disease.
All that to say, there seems to be a need for an initial step clarifying the question being asked and evaluating whether it's a good question to begin with.
Why are people going to a Political Scientist for medical advice? That is odd.
I hope Prof Gelman’s answer was based on a recognition that he doesn’t have the context and/or the historical background to properly interpret the studies.
I worked for a health services research and study firm for 18 years so I’m pretty well versed in what to look for when doing research. Of course I no longer have their excellent research to troll since retiring. I do my best but I do get frustrated often. I’m thankful for these Sensible Medicine posts, and to you and Dr. Pearson for heart health posts. You are my trusted resources.
I always check multiple sources and the credentials of the authors! Experience dictates that a jaundiced eye is wise! Many things seem good at first blush and falter under close scrutiny!
I'm an 86-year-old layman practicing plant-based nutrition for the past 40 years. But I am suspicious of claims made for us plantavores regarding Covid-19. One observational study found vegans far less likely to become infected and less likely to be hospitalized if infected. If so, it might be that vegans are more likely not to join large group gatherings, or wear masks in such situations. But if it is true, as some more knowledgeable than me claim, that a vegans gut produces more fatty acids that bind to Ace-2 receptors in the lungs blocking Covid from the receptors it uses to infect, then maybe there is some truth to the claim about Covid infections.How do your comments today deal with these "simple" answers?
I like to believe that we should accept our expertise where it exists and include it in our decision making. Bayesian analysis should absolutely include this. For example, in statistical analysis, I'm probably more of an expert than many or most epidemiologists. That should be important to accept and to understand.
Also, we often ask bad questions. Beyond the rampant use of markers and proxies vs. primary outcomes, we usually are looking for for a single simple answer. It's easier to say vitamin D is, or is not, an effective prophylactic for COVID. It's harder to discuss vitamin D as an important part of a healthy life - which is beneficial in our immune response to many diseases. "Helpful" is not as sexy as a silver bullet.
Well, sure it's simple if you have many years of medical school and a deep seated expertise in the topic. For someone who does not know what a "randomized trial" is, it's a little less simple. Your post is the classic "an expert thinks things in their field are simple to understand because they're an expert not because they're actually simple" kind of comment
i use to date a bayesian. but we both had to become episcopalian to impress her mother.
ive adjusted my priors to no longer date people w mothers, & expect contentment in my relationships. so far it has been lonely: but also no relationships have failed. look, not all data is useful. nor all dating. _JC
Regarding the Vitamin D question, It seems there's actually many different questions being asked, which warrant different answers.
"Does Vitamin D 'cure' COVID?"
"Does Vitamin D help fight COVID?"
"Does Vitamin D prevent infection?"
We know there's rarely a singular cause/cure for any disease, so that decreases the chances Vitamin D is one. But otherwise, it *could* help prevent severe disease, in that my priors hold that being nutritionally deficient likely makes you weaker at fighting disease.
All that to say, there seems to be a need for an initial step clarifying the question being asked and evaluating whether it's a good question to begin with.
Why are people going to a Political Scientist for medical advice? That is odd.
I hope Prof Gelman’s answer was based on a recognition that he doesn’t have the context and/or the historical background to properly interpret the studies.
Is anyone else having issues with audio yesterday and today? When you hit the headphones for audio it says it is still processing. All day long......
I worked for a health services research and study firm for 18 years so I’m pretty well versed in what to look for when doing research. Of course I no longer have their excellent research to troll since retiring. I do my best but I do get frustrated often. I’m thankful for these Sensible Medicine posts, and to you and Dr. Pearson for heart health posts. You are my trusted resources.
I always check multiple sources and the credentials of the authors! Experience dictates that a jaundiced eye is wise! Many things seem good at first blush and falter under close scrutiny!
I'm an 86-year-old layman practicing plant-based nutrition for the past 40 years. But I am suspicious of claims made for us plantavores regarding Covid-19. One observational study found vegans far less likely to become infected and less likely to be hospitalized if infected. If so, it might be that vegans are more likely not to join large group gatherings, or wear masks in such situations. But if it is true, as some more knowledgeable than me claim, that a vegans gut produces more fatty acids that bind to Ace-2 receptors in the lungs blocking Covid from the receptors it uses to infect, then maybe there is some truth to the claim about Covid infections.How do your comments today deal with these "simple" answers?
I like to believe that we should accept our expertise where it exists and include it in our decision making. Bayesian analysis should absolutely include this. For example, in statistical analysis, I'm probably more of an expert than many or most epidemiologists. That should be important to accept and to understand.
Also, we often ask bad questions. Beyond the rampant use of markers and proxies vs. primary outcomes, we usually are looking for for a single simple answer. It's easier to say vitamin D is, or is not, an effective prophylactic for COVID. It's harder to discuss vitamin D as an important part of a healthy life - which is beneficial in our immune response to many diseases. "Helpful" is not as sexy as a silver bullet.